Perturbations in the Space-Time Continuum in Mass-Transport: 2. Why Trains are Always Late
Following the momentous discoveries in mass transport previously reported in this publication, investigators at The Mill (YSA's research laboratories) are now able to present an amazing leap forward in our understanding of lateness: the Grand Unified Theory of Accumulated Lateness.
Grand Unified Theory of Accumulated Lateness
After developing theories to partially explain many features of public transport, we felt that it was necessary to make the next step and develop a theory of everything. Unification theories are the primordial soup for Nobel Prizes (just ask Feynman) and there are lots of physicists Out There working on them. We're now eagerly awaiting a call from the Nobel Committee... but while we're waiting, we might as well explain how we have unified our previous quantum mechanical and particle theories into the Grand Unified Theory of Accumulated Lateness (GUTAL).
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"We always knew that running late would prove to be useful one day!" |
Put simply, GUTAL allows us to formulate expressions for the probability that a particular form of Mass Transport will be late, and develop an expectation value for how late it will be (based on its Accumulated Lateness Factor). The probability that something will be late, P, may be expressed as a function of the journey time, t, and the Universal Lateness Constant, k, (k = 0.238):1
Similarly, the expectation value (i.e. the most probable outcome) for the amount of accumulated lateness, Et, is related to the recent trips made by the Mass Transport vehicle:
Figure 1: A typical lateness probability curve. Note that a long train trip (such as Sydney to Melbourne) has very little chance of being on time.
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where z is the Universal Lateness Compounding Coefficient (z = 0.78).2 Without going into confounding detail as to the derivation or application of these formulae, let us consider a couple of recent events during which the effect of accumulated lateness has been seen.
GUTAL Explains Airline Maintenance
It is well known that the aviation industry (in particular Australia's domestic airlines) suffers from extensive delays, thus making them ideal subjects for our focused investigation into this new regime of Accumulated Lateness. First, consider Ansett Airlines and their apparent failure to perform some routine safety checks on their fleet of Boeing 767s.3 The nature of this check was to see if the structure of the tail was ageing too fast. Since these particular planes have been late all their life, they have a large accumulated lateness. This means that within the planes' timeframe, the planes are not actually as old as they appear to be within our timeframe. Thus, the safety checks were not late by the planes' standards, only by ours. When asked for comment by researchers from The Mill, Sir Reginald Ansett (1909-1981) offered the following:4 "We always knew that running late would prove to be useful one day!" It is obvious that Ansett has a rudimentary understanding of GUTAL, although the aviation safety body (CASA) is yet to appreciate its implications.
GUTAL Explains Tunnel Cracking
Another application of GUTAL is in relation to Melbourne's infamous Burnley Tunnel, part of the CityLink tollway system. In this case, the opening of the tunnel was some 18 months late, and it has been recently closed due to cracking in the tunnel walls. Interpreting these events in terms of GUTAL, we see that this system has a large amount of Accumulate Lateness. In terms of different timeframes, it is clear that if the tunnel opening were considered to be "on time" then the time within the tunnel must be slowed. The speed of a car within the tunnel is measured relative to this slow tunnel-time, so although a speedometer may indicate 60 km/h, when measured against the real time outside it is much faster (a rough calculation indicates that it is equivalent to 114 km/h). The slow speed limits within the tunnel must, therefore, be considered to be reasonable.
An unfortunate consequence of tunnel-time is due to the redemption of the Accumulated Lateness (as must happen eventually by the Law of Conservation of Lateness5). Since the inside of the tunnel is running on a slowed tunnel-time, the area around the tunnel is running at a much faster bedrock-time to ensure lateness is conserved. Unfortunately, due to a slight engineering problem in the design of the tunnel, some of this fast, bedrock-time has leaked through the plastic lining around the tunnel and has permeated the tunnel walls. Parts of the tunnel walls are now running on bedrock-time leading to their premature ageing. This gives the observed cracking in the tunnel walls.
GUTAL Explains Scooters
Following on from the previous illustration of the Law of Conservation of Lateness, let us consider the age regression that has been observed the latest fad: scooters. Many middle-aged, otherwise sensible businessmen may be seen riding the streets on scooters (this would appear to be a gender-linked phenomenon, which may provide an avenue for further fruitful research). The observed trend is that the subject regresses to their obnoxious, teenage behaviours. Here, we see the scooter acting as an inverse operator to the accumulation of lateness, catalysing a negative feedback loop that leaves the subject in their mid-teens during the period of scooter use. We believe that this may be the secret to eternal youth and are developing miniature scooters to be attached to people wishing to stay young.6
GUTAL Explains Trains
At this point, you are probably familiar enough with the details of GUTAL for us to be able to apply it to trains. This is perhaps the most complicated application of GUTAL, but one that has the most potential to revolutionise the way in which the world is run.
Each train is a moving body that tends to accumulate lateness even without being late itself. This is due to an interesting luminophysical effect involving the train and head-on collisions with photons. The driver of the train is exposed to a large number of incident photons, many of which have a large Accumulated Lateness.7 As the driver absorbs these photons, he or she inherits this lateness debt. By considering the way lateness debts alter the time (as before), the driver and the train become late, although they remain oblivious to the alteration. Since the passengers are shielded from these incident photons (which is why you are not allowed to travel in the drivers' compartment),they do not experience the time-alteration. The passengers thus perceive the train to be running late, although the train staff do not. To help overcome tensions that have arisen due to the lateness (or otherwise) of train services, many public transport systems have redefined "late" for their trains to mean more than 5 minutes after the scheduled time. This correction factor makes GUTAL effects negligible in timetabling trains.
Conclusion
While there remains a little work to be done on GUTAL before it is a polished theory, we believe we have been able to develop the theory sufficiently for it to be tested against experimental data. In each of the case studies highlighted here, our Grand Unified Theory of Accumulated Lateness has proved to be quite successful in assisting in the interpretation of observed results. We believe it is important that GUTAL be extended to include lateness in homework, assignment and article submission, and we welcome other researchers to continue this line of fruitful endeavour into these other areas.
1. The Universal Lateness Constant has been disparagingly described by some as being a fitting parameter. This is clearly not the case.
2. The Universal Lateness Compounding Coefficient is also not a fitting parameter.
3. Q: Why do pilots prefer to fly for Ansett not Qantas? A: Because they get Christmas and Easter off.
4. Ansett, R., Personal Communication (séance), Apr 22, 2001. Sir Reginald Ansett was the founder of Ansett Airlines.
5. It is, of course, natural that this quantity is conserved, especially when the ratio between the Universal Lateness Constant and the Universal Lateness Compounding Coefficient is considered.
6. This also provides The Mill with another way to take over the world.
7. They have had to travel a long way, so it probably is fair enough.
The Researchers at The Mill would like to point out that mind-altering drugs were not used in the preparation of this (or any other) article. Since we are obviously starting to get rather desperate for new areas of research, we are interested in hearing about your unpublished research or new and interesting theories....
The Researchers at The Mill are interested in hearing about your unpublished research or new and interesting theories. If you have something in which you think our team would be interested, send it to us by email or snail mail to your YSA Chapter. Prizes will be awarded to good contributions as judged by the senior researchers.
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Last Modified: Monday, 08-Sep-2003 10:24:09 EST
